10.19.09, 08:02 AM EDT
SUGAR/CZARNIKOW/ (URGENT):Sugar prices seen up, tight Brazil supply-Czarnikow
LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Brazil's sugar supply outlook is set to tighten after heavy rainfall, suggesting that prices will rise, consultancy Czarnikow said on Monday
"While the 'sugar story' has so far focused on the fall in Indian production, and India's need for imports, the next step up will be all about the fall in the Brazilian production outlook," Czarnikow said in its latest monthly review
Czarnikow has cut its forecast for 2009/10 centre-south Brazil sugar output to 28.2 million tonnes, from a previous prediction of 29.2 million, after output of 26.7 million tonnes in 2008/09, said senior analyst Peter De Klerk
.The drop was due to reduced throughput at mills after the heavy rains which harmed yields
Raw sugar prices more than doubled this year after India, the world's biggest consumer, shifted to a net importer from exporter
Now the focus of the sugar market has shifted to Brazil, the world's top producer and exporter, which has had persistent and excessive rainfall during harvesting
It is becoming increasingly clear that Brazil is not going to be able to support these levels of demand during the off-crop period, even though the industry has clearly tried to maximise sugar production," London-based Czarnikow said
."Limits on supply require a forced adjustment of consumption," the consultancy said
."To this end it is clear that prices will need to move higher to ration demand"
. Czarnikow said the sugar market faced a supply bottleneck
"By mid-August sugar production was running almost 3 million tonnes ahead of the previous year though this has fallen back to just 1.7 million tonnes," it said
"As the centre-south of Brazil has already exported a further 3 million tonnes this season to the end of September, total availability for October onwards is unlikely to exceed 7 million tonnes, allowing for domestic consumption."
Czarnikow added, "There simply will not be enough sugar to meet ongoing levels of demand."
The consultancy said that with the harvest in the centre-south of Brazil now coming to an end, hedging pressure and export availability was set to tighten sharply. (Reporting by David Brough; editing by Anthony Barker)
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